August 2010
2 posts
No more Tumblr Blog - Moving to...
Thank you tumblr for the quick and dirty posts. All future blog posts will be posted on http://www.johnwelshtrades.com.
Welsh
8/5/10 ARNA fail value after FDA rejection 2.50
Assuming the panel on 9/16 rejects them as I believe, what is ARNA fail value: 2.50. ARNA has the best chance to get an FDA panel nod I believe that, but the likely scenerio is ARNA will also fail & so will OREX, joining VVUS, as failures. On to ARNA:
ARNA drug is so safe, it has no efficency. ARNA drug is so efficent, they got a whopping $50 million upfront from their partner. ARNA...
July 2010
1 post
7/22/2010 It's Break Time
Just wanted to post a quick blog note regarding twitter & stocktwits and the like, I will be done posting tweets & trades until at least August 30th. Most of August I will be on vacation, & to be honest, it’s dead on nearly impossible for real time trade alerts, entires & commentary, & way overdue for a nice break.
Even though I have at least a high school degree, since...
June 2010
2 posts
When a flat trade is actually mentally profitable...
I don’t normally write about trades that don’t make or lose money, but I felt that a large trade of FAS today deserved a special blog post.
I came into the day wanting to risk some hard earned monthly profits. At the beginning of the week, Barney “FRE or FNM forever” Franks said FinReg resolution would be completed by end of day thursday. I told myself based on market...
Debunking the CLDX rumors, still looks great long...
CLDX It’s time to start accumulating again on dips like Thursday. Emailed CFO Chip Catlin regarding rumor that $PFE was going to discontinue it’s CDX-110 trial due to difficulty of setting up the phase 3 study. This is absurd. The design of the phase 3 trail maybe hard, but in my opinion, it’s only because the drug works well and whoever takes the trial won’t want to...
May 2010
2 posts
May 6th 2010, The Day Everything Broke & A Theory
For those that follow me, I am a skeptical trader and investor. I have learned over the years of trading never, ever trust the market. So when the market screams in March & April, I was underinvested. When the market crashes like May 6th, I am protected. Going forward, don’t care what the market does up or down, never have, never will, but I wanted to throw out a theory of what I...
ASCO 2010 Catalyst & Companies:
Here is a quick and dirty ASCO blog on the companies presenting new or detailed data. The dates of the conference are June 4th - 8th, with most of the data occurring over that weekend. CLDX CDX-110 already partnered results will shine and the most important detailed presentation of top line data already out looks to be DCTH.
Previews, or abstracts, will be released May 20th most companies, so...
April 2010
2 posts
The RNN "Box" Trade Idea & Execution
Got alot of requests for this so I will put it up, because the trade was complex but here was the idea of the trade:
I am not a fan of RNN. I didn’t like it before this big run, didn’t like it when it was running, and of course still don’t like it now. So, on friday when RNN ran to 2.60 and I could not get any short shares and suddenly some became available from one of my...
Low Float Mania Running Wild! Bad Habits??
I spent the day reviewing my March trades and the general action. Low float mania has struck and is leading to bad habits. Here is what I have seen, and some of this I am just as guilty of myself. I cannot tell you how many emails I have gotten over the last two weeks about a tale of woe with the low floaters. Here are some bad habits that need to be cleaned up in order to trade successfully...
March 2010
2 posts
Adapt to the market......or get squished
Lesson: If feels good to be wrong and make money
Personally, I am having my ‘worst’ trading month since March 2009 of last year. I bring this up to share what I have learned, even just in one year.
Last week the trading started to get a bit better, with more trading opportunities, but for the majority of this month, the buy and hold, swing type strategy working well much better...
Open Response Letter To Tim Sykes:
Just like with every entry I post there is an exit posted, I felt I needed to do a blog followup & replace with what happened with Tim Sykes this week. Here is an email I sent to Sykes in true form that closes my feelings on the subject of ZANE (Which is still not a good company fyi) & microcap trading, but more importantly his overall work against paid penny promoters that I have always...
January 2010
3 posts
Revisiting CLDX & A 'Big Trade' I Placed
Might as well handle all tweets at once on this name in a blog. Here is my theory on CLDX:
First disclosure: I own 22.5k at 4.60. Not recommending to buy or sell the stock. What you do is up to you. Just like with every single biotech I follow, major risk in the name. I personally like the company and I have liked it at higher levels before without success. In the future, I will only be...
Let's Play Chicken With A Trillion Dollars
You cannot make this stuff up folks. Let me get this straight: The US government gives the FED power to create a 1 Trillion in TARP and government bailout plans & may not let the man who created the plan finish the job. STUPID. Politics are politics, but you don’t play chicken with a trillion dollars, which is exactly what this game is.
I will admit, I was first to laugh at the...
2010 Adjustments, Enhancements & Picks
Ok, after basically taking most trading days off since 12/15, anxiously waiting to start trading for 2010. After having a another record personal year of trading, most traders would stick with their approach for the next trading year. Not me. I review what I did wrong, and I adjust my approach to keep increasing trading gains, no matter what the market conditions are. This approach has led to...
December 2009
2 posts
Review Short Of ATHX 12/21 Short & Low Floaters
I wanted to post a quick review of the ATHX short trade I did today to make 2k. Not because I think the trade made money, but to share my thoughts that fit most of these low float screamers that move on news. So, here are my thoughts, and learn from it what you will, because nothing is perfect, and there are losers (ACHN for example last week), but here is my process:
Did a scan of this...
Posting Entries & Exits on Stocktwits
Just a quick note, & I am a absolute nobody, but try this technique to see if it helps you: If you post your entry on Stocktwits, you should post an exit. I have been trying this technique for months, posting entries & exits real times with screen shots gain or loss. It has helped my trading, because you do less ‘stupid things’ for the world to see. Not to mention, it adds...
November 2009
5 posts
Open Letter About Jim Cramer Supporting...
YOU ARE A IDIOT! Signed, Everyone
Increase margin requirements for ETFs At...
Another reason to avoid junk ETFs, from Ameritrade:
Dear Valued Client,
We want to let you know that effective December 1, 2009, the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) is implementing increased customer margin requirements for leveraged Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). FINRA believes these higher margin levels are necessary in view of the increased volatility of leveraged ETFs compared...
The only hope for Bears: Good economic numbers
Today, I saw this tweet:
“……the whole market rally is running on the back of free fed money and tweaked numbers…..”
My simple response: SO WHAT!!!!!!!!!!!! I believe permabears are adding to the foreclosure numbers. The fed has basically begged you to take RISK for the past nine months. It’s a jobless recovery on the back of free FED money. I say thank...
Moving Stops, The NLST short & Thanksgiving Week...
A quick review about a trading mistake I made last week to learn from.
I shorted 5k NLST at 5.70 on friday a.m. which was a fair trade at the time considering it’s run up. It closed the prior day at 5.67, and hit 5.60 after I made the trade to go red in pre-market.
However, as soon as it hit pre-market low, NLST just started to march up pre-market. My mental stop was 6 bucks, and NLST...
Jim Cramer: An Open letter to Jon Stewart The New...
This post has been moved to:
http://johnwelshphd.com/thoughts-on-jim-cramer
October 2009
13 posts
Recapping 10/23 Trading And Thoughts
First off guys, have a great weekend. Today’s trading nothing but blah. Another day, another loss. Basically added up all my gains and realized/unrealized losses for trades and slightly up for the month. This has been a disappointing trading month, and it’s pretty simple why. Look what’s working….AAPL, GOOG, AMZN…and basically not much else overall. This means...
Recapping 10/21 & 10/22 Trades
Well, finally busted back in the win column today due to overall market breakout, and used a junk slump buster, LEI, to do it, ending up 1.8k for day. Wanted to cover a couple of trades done today as today first day in a week or so felt have some solid trading ideas, both right and wrong. Going to highlight the solid ideas and why, not all the trades. Let’s get to it.
SLM short 11.13,...
Recapping 10/20 Trading Thoughts
Just wanted to give some overall thoughts about the trading month so far. This month, I personally feel trading it has been like quicksand. What has worked from Apr-Sept 09, trading the volume breakouts and material news items (Seems like so few this month), to me, are gone. So, this month left fighting for scraps, unless you trade though earnings, which I do not. So what to think?
I think...
Recapping 10/19 trades NVAX, IDCC, UPRO
So far this month, COMPLETELY wrong overall on market movements, but still up 21k on the month. I think it’s a good lesson overall to make money when completely wrong, which I really have not been for sometime, but October has caught me off guard. Continue to take small trading losses, which has worked overall. Onto the trades.
NVAX in 15k 3.87, out 3.80, lost 1.1k. Bought due to...
Why I don't believe all is lost at MNKD
Currently holding 3k shares MNKD 5.77 (Size of position about a 2.5 out of normal 10), will average down a bit at 5 if it comes, for possible 3 month play into January FDA decision or unexpected event.
Last week, MNKD annouced that they are ‘going alone’ into FDA decision for their insulin product Afresa. From the press release:
...
Recapping 10/16 Trades MNKD, BIDU
Light trading day on friday, but ended up losing 1.1k in a down market. Took off usual friday afternoon as don’t like that trading time overall because too much manipulation overall.
10/15 MNKD 10k 5.77, sold 7k 5.62, lost 1k. MNKD was a swing long trade from 10/15, that I said to myself if it closed green, would try and keep it for multiple days. It closed the prior day at 5.88,...
Recapping 10/16 trades OPXA, IMMU, GS, NVAX, OGXI,...
Today ended up with a small gain. Last two days seems like frantic trading, but, there has been an overall plan. This entire month, I thought earnings would not live up to expections, so, am mostly in stocks, bonds and little equities. So far, AA, INTC, GOOG, JPM have impressed me and justified the runs.
That being said, if the stock market was going to march to 10k on the DOW, I decided that...
Recapping 10/14 trades URE, MPG, AIG, OPXA, GSI
Market broke 10k today, was not expecting it, so really did not benefit much on the big gap up, and basically broke even today with no real good calls. Here is the overall summary of trades:
10/14 - URE Short 5.96, out 5.98, lost 200. Tried to short right on open the bullish commercial real estate ETF based on JPM comments on conference call, but did not matter, market gap up way to big, but...
Recapping 10/13 trades DPTR, VASC, SVA, AONE, AIG,...
Lots of good things today, lots of bad. Let’s review:
10/12 DPTR long trade 1.72 30k sold 1.74 $600 profit. Did research last night, looked like DPTR had shareholder meeting day before when I saw volume come in end of day when closed at 1.76. In this case, no news good news because people expecting dilution. So, when DPTR opened up at 1.78 was willing to see how it traded today...
Recapping 10/12 trades DRIV, WYNN, SOHU, DPTR
Slow holiday day put still plus 2k on paper and gains.
DRIV long 28.25, 1.5k - bought DRIV premarket with Gene Munster ‘pounded the table’ on the name, but the action looked weak. Bought in 1.5k at 28.25, pre-market low was around 27.50, and stock did not react to it, at all, so I dumped the shares at 28 for a $300 loss. Turned out to be absolute right decision to take small loss on...
Recapping 10/9 trades SPPI, ACOR, AONE, FAS, AVNR
AVNR - Just wanted to point out, the trade of not holding into the data, even though I thought it would be good. AVNR gapped up to 2.80 pre-market, and now getting sell on the news action. Was very confident that data would be good, but I don’t hold into these events unless 100% sure, and I was not.
SPPI - Bought pre-market at 4.80, sold at 5.30, 5k shares. I knew this FDA event on was a...
Recapping 10/8 Trades, DRYS, YRCW, AVNR
Due to twitter problems, will respond to all mentions later tonight:
DRYS swing summary from yesterday:
««DRYS - Bought DRYS as a back door ‘earnings play’ of AA. Here is why. The shipping sector strong, DRYS lagging it a bit. AA is all about aluminum. So, the market thinks like this, if AA is producing more Alumimun, this leads to more commodity usage, such as iron ore pellets,...
Recapping 10/7 Trades ACAS, AVNR, DRYS
Ok guys and girls. Here it is, some of you followers are getting LAZY. Of course, it’s not everybody, but you know who you are. Anyway, for the month of october, for the beginning to intermediate traders will explain the though process behind the trades, not just the tweets, so you can learn for yourself. Since these service is absolutely free right now, and who knows if it will be in...
September 2009
2 posts
Q: I am currently margined and down...what to do?
First off, as soon as the market starts to pull back a bit, I new these questions would start.
In summary buying and holding on margin is a MISTAKE. NEVER, EVER, EVER buy and hold on margin, EVER! There is no benefit to this, and it’s only a liability.
If you are currently on margin and not trapped yet where you could get a margin call if markets continue downward, GET OFF MARGIN. I am...
Is this a hot streak, or is this normal for you?
I received an interesting email today with an important question that I wanted to address:
Q: Are you on a hot streak or is this pretty normal for you?
The simple answer to this question is yes, I consider this a hot streak, and it’s not normal.
Already this year, I am at record personal gains. HOWEVER, I think it’s more a function of market. Trading has been too easy. Going...
August 2009
1 post
How I calculate Taxes for each trading year:
The below block is the ‘accounting’ lingo for how I calculate and handle taxes every year for filing. But really, it’s this simple:
I run consolidated reports out of interactive brokers, ameritrade and etrade and get the net gain, AFTER commissions (commissions tax deductable and included in trade deductions). This is the number I pay taxes on. I don’t file...
July 2009
9 posts
Update On Swing Long Positions 7/30 ARNA, ALXA,...
Since I won’t be here to follow the minute to minute movements of these stocks, here is an update before I go on vacation, and will update this again Mid August. I swapped a little CLDX here for RIGL to balance it out a bit today:
ARNA - 5k, 4.57. ARNA has a financial CC on monday. Should be a non-event. HOWEVER, listen closely to see when BLOSSOM results will be, if they disclose. The...
Why CLDX?
So far, all I have disclosed about why I am accumulating CLDX is it was this years ‘ASCO’ star. I have 4k at 7.58 average shares. Read this below, and you can see why I am high on this company. Right now, no stop in mind, waiting for it’s merger to close this QTR before new data is released. Just a hold for now, small to medium position.
http://in.sys-con.com/node/1050356
...
Quick Comment on RIGL swing long position
Holding just 1k shares at 9, going to wait. I swapped my shares out of a trading account into my long term account on this news. Here is a quick comment for anyone that bought RIGL on this mornings dip:
On the CC last night, RIGL said that after they meet with FDA to go over the phase 2 trial results and design of Phase 3, they will be looking to partner BEFORE entering phase 3 trials but...
Swing Long Position Updates: SQNM, ARNA, LAVA,...
SQNM: Closed out position in SQNM at 5.45 after 60% gain, because, without see the Down Syndrome third party validated results, was just too big to give up. Nothing has changed with my opinion the DAY OF the SEC investigation annoucement:
http://johnwelshphd.tumblr.com/post/133261731/my-opinion-on-sqnm
However, get 60% before risking anything to see these results was an option I had to take. ...
Update On Tiny Swine Flu Plays - Or Is it? NVAX,...
Besides the obvious big boys, the maker of Tamiflu comes to mind, there may be room for a smaller player in the world to combat swine flu. Or maybe not.
BCRX is way ahead of itself. Good news last week regarding Phase 3 peramivir trials were so good, that Leerink Swann upgraded the stock. Price target $5. BCRX almost hit $8 today.
If you catch swine flu, don’t worry, HEB says they may...
Quick Points OREX Results and CC tomorrow
Friday AH, OREX was up 60% on a press release stating they are going to review Contrave results ‘earlier then original scheduled’ pre-market on monday. Strange action to say the least.
What I am looking for is weight loss to placebo adjusted 5%. This is an FDA ‘guideline’. Last time Contrave reported results of a year study, the weight loss to placebo was 4.2%. ...
Update on ARNA Secondary offering news
Disclosure: Holding 5k long at 4.57. Mental stop is now 3.57. Stance on the company goes from positive to cautiously optimistic.
After hours ARNA annouced they are going to do a large common stock offering. Looks to be around 4ish, and I ask, WHY?
I understand the Deerfield credit facility, and it made both financial and economic sense to me, as I figured there would be no more dilution...
Update On Swing Long Positions 7/6
Only going to update twitter on these positions on News, not on the daily swings. Will update this blog every other week on these positions. Not much has changed, but below is how it looks for July-August:
SQNM - Still in 2k from 3.50, good till cancel stop at 2.75. This is in a slow drift downward, and could be lifeless all summer because not expecting down syndrome results till q4. Holding...
PPIP Program Tomorrow Absolute Disgrace
Tomorrow, the world will see what a sham the PPIP program is. When it was first annouced, it was supposed to auction off 1 trillion dollars of toxic junk assets to 100+ asset managers in the private sector.
Now, the fed will introduce the PPIP program to only auction off 50 billion of toxic assets and only 9 assets managers?
What an absolute disgrace. When the PPIP program was annouced, I said...
My opinion on SQNM
Disclosure: At 6/30, currently long 2k shares from $3.51. Good to cancel stop at $2.75. On a scale of 1 to 10 in size, with 1 being the smallest, SQNM is a 1.5 for me, a very small size.
Why I think SQNM is a speculative buy, but first, you shoud know this:
First off, I have no insider knowledge of SQNM, and this is my opinion. I usually do not buy stocks when there is ‘fraud’...