Besides the obvious big boys, the maker of Tamiflu comes to mind, there may be room for a smaller player in the world to combat swine flu.  Or maybe not. 

BCRX is way ahead of itself.  Good news last week regarding Phase 3 peramivir trials were so good, that Leerink Swann upgraded the stock.  Price target $5.  BCRX almost hit $8 today.

If you catch swine flu, don’t worry, HEB says they may have the solution with Ampligen.  Ampligen is like the solution the father uses from MY BIG FAT GREEK WEDDING, it’s like windex, it can cure anything.   Only problem, Ampligen has never even been proven to clean windows.  HEB is an avoid.

The only ’small’ player in this game I like is NVAX, but at cheaper levels.  I was the biggest short on the planet on NVAX for bird flu and SARS. However, NVAX deal with NIH changed my opinion on the company, and the licensing deal with spain verifies the bullish opinion.

NVAX the stock itself has never been about swine flu, swine flu has opened the door, finally, for the need of it’s technology and the spain deal has confirmed that thinking.   What’s funny is I actually would be very surprised if NVAX ever made a dime off swine flu.  

NVAX is an AVOID as a short is all I know.  I like NVAX for a long term position around 2.30 - 2.50 area, if it ever gets there again.  I continue to trade NVAX from a long position on news and movement.

Recent, large insider selling on NVAX is a red flag that it is overvalued above 3, which is why I continue to hold off on buying a long position at levels insiders sold shares.

The big boys are going to make a killing this year off swine flu.  The little ones?  Not likely.

Welsh

At the time I wrote this, no position in any of the listed companies.