JohnWelshPhd
Recapping 10/7 Trades ACAS, AVNR, DRYS

Ok guys and girls.  Here it is, some of you followers are getting LAZY.  Of course, it’s not everybody, but you know who you are.  Anyway, for the month of october, for the beginning to intermediate traders will explain the though process behind the trades, not just the tweets, so you can learn for yourself.  Since these service is absolutely free right now, and who knows if it will be in the future, or if I will continue to tweet beyond october for those who have been lazy better start learning.   Win, lose, flat, going to explain the thoughts behind the trades, because it’s earnings season, and I trade a certain style.   If you are not in these stocks already, don’t buy.  Here you go:

ACAS - The market was down today, but the financial sector had relative strength, and I noticed the big blocks on ACAS.  So, before I bought, I checked the daily average of volume around noon and it is usually around 5.5 million/day.  At noon, it was already there.  I think searched my news services and found nothing.  So, here is ACAS, relative strength in a relative strong sector, with a day high of 3.15.  I bought a starter 10k at 3.12, with the full intention to double up if it broke it’s days high of 3.15.  It did not, it waffled all afternoon, market even came back a bit, and it did nothing.  Ended up selling for 300 loss, but if held till close could have been flat.   This was a low risk trade today the way it was trading, and the small loss more than acceptable.  Closed position.

AVNR - I bought AVNR when it broke it’s days high of 2.35 on a breakout play, in 15k 2.351.  AVNR had nice news, smallish news today, and traded strong all day, so doing a swing trade and selling before friday’s presentation, and here is why:

http://bit.ly/6FkNE  CEO says going to present ‘exciting, new data’ on friday.  It’s in the press release.  When a CEO goes out on a limb like this, it’s usually good.  Will I hold into the data?  Probably not, but I am hoping the excitement he created by saying this statement will make me profits tomorrow.  Will it?  Not sure, but I did not want to take a small gain on something that could run.  Closed at 2.42, holding all, and will review tomorrow.

DRYS - Bought DRYS as a back door ‘earnings play’ of AA.  Here is why.  The shipping sector strong, DRYS lagging it a bit.  AA is all about aluminum.  So, the market thinks like this, if AA is producing more Alumimun, this leads to more commodity usage, such as iron ore pellets, steel and the like.  So, if more products being used, someone needs to ship them.  The shipper index strong overall, so took a shot at this 10k 6.73 to try to get a back door play off AA earnings.  Not to mention, the baltic dry index been going up everyday, which is the rates for shipping stocks over the last week.  The sector has momo, so this is also why I tried it.  Will Review tomorrow, held overnight.

Welsh