JohnWelshPhd
Recapping 10/8 Trades, DRYS, YRCW, AVNR

Due to twitter problems, will respond to all mentions later tonight:

DRYS swing summary from yesterday:

««DRYS - Bought DRYS as a back door ‘earnings play’ of AA.  Here is why.  The shipping sector strong, DRYS lagging it a bit.  AA is all about aluminum.  So, the market thinks like this, if AA is producing more Alumimun, this leads to more commodity usage, such as iron ore pellets, steel and the like.  So, if more products being used, someone needs to ship them.  The shipper index strong overall, so took a shot at this 10k 6.73 to try to get a back door play off AA earnings.  Not to mention, the baltic dry index been going up everyday, which is the rates for shipping stocks over the last week.  The sector has momo, so this is also why I tried it.  Will Review tomorrow, held overnight.»»

10/8 COMMENT:  Trade went exactly as planned, and even got the kicker of the BDI index, which tracks shipping rates, up 4% again.  Sold at 7, did not quite get the days high, but overall a solid call and thought.

AVNR summar from yesterday:

«AVNR - I bought AVNR when it broke it’s days high of 2.35 on a breakout play, in 15k 2.351.  AVNR had nice news, smallish news today, and traded strong all day, so doing a swing trade and selling before friday’s presentation, and here is why:

http://bit.ly/6FkNE  CEO says going to present ‘exciting, new data’ on friday.  It’s in the press release.  When a CEO goes out on a limb like this, it’s usually good.  Will I hold into the data?  Probably not, but I am hoping the excitement he created by saying this statement will make me profits tomorrow.  Will it?  Not sure, but I did not want to take a small gain on something that could run.  Closed at 2.42, holding all, and will review tomorrow.»

10/8 COMMENT:  Was up on this play yesterday, and decided to roll the dice hoping for continued momo into today and sell before the data.  Well, I sold before the data, but there was no follow through, and once AVNR went red, I knew the play was over.  Mistake here not using a stop at 2.35 entry.  Ended up selling for 1.2k loss at end of day.  Once it went red for day, it was all over, and it was all over early.   Should be interesting to see if this does anything tomorrow, but I don’t like risk, so I took everything off the table, and for a loss.

YRCW INTRADAY TRADE:  I noticed YRCW been consolidating lately, and since the market was up and speculative today, I told myself to go long this SLOB if it breaks it’s days high, whatever price it was, after the morning gap up.  (4.34)  Got in 10k, sold at 4.62 for nice profit, again, not calling the top, but it closed right there.  Even though I don’t believe in the company, I keep an open mind and play things short or long, whatever I think the market is telling me to do.

The added bonus on this play is right after I bought it, it was like briefing read my tweet, they mentioned it on ‘in play’ so I had a great entry, and I sold into the briefing spike.  I wonder how briefing did that?  Booyah.

Welsh