Ok, after basically taking most trading days off since 12/15, anxiously waiting to start trading for 2010. After having a another record personal year of trading, most traders would stick with their approach for the next trading year. Not me. I review what I did wrong, and I adjust my approach to keep increasing trading gains, no matter what the market conditions are. This approach has led to 6 straight record personal trading years, and after an easy 2009, it’s time to get even more efficient for what I expect to be a bumpy & not as fruitfull for longs 2010.
I stated in December I was trying new things, testing new ideas & learning new techniques on the side instead of doing my normal trading. Here they are:
1) In Feb 2010, I will introduce a ‘confidence scale’ of every real time entry trade, on a scale of 1 to 10. I have been internally testing this approach with great results. This should help my twitter followers, why allowing me to adjust and cut down on my ‘flat trades’ in case a transaction tax ever gets put into place. More about this new feature later in January.
2) I will be a adjusting the size of my trades UPWARDS. Simply put, one of my personal financial goals is to make 750,000 this year, or about 50% higher than 2009, no matter what the market conditions are. Since my ideas are about 90% right but about 60% right on the executions, I believe an increase in size will increase returns over time. Thus, if I trading 1k before, now 1.5k. 3k, 5k. 10k, 15k and so on.
3) Over the last two weeks, I have been using BASIC CHARTING on some of my approaches for better entries. 2010 will be the first year I use a basic chart. I can see the trends on stocktwits, everybody & their mother are using charts. This is the right time to introduce charting basics to my trading ideas and techniques to get better entries. I always present the hot movers and shaker ideas of the day it seems, and better entries and exits will make me more efficient no matter what the market conditions.
4) I will be using a “Box in strategy” in some cases to increase returns, reminded to me by @kunal00. Simply put, there may be times where I am long a stock & short a stock by the same amount in two different brokerage accounts.
5) Try this helpfull hint when following my twitter; I think my tweets are unique in style, and there is a reason for it. When I am not responding to someone, my tweets are not written to respond for followers, they are written as I am talking to MYSELF.
6) I will be posting trade confirmations snapshots every trading day, which is one of the trendsetting ideas I followed @stockguy22 on. However, I will no longer be posting daily gains or loss totals, but instead, post one lump monthly number, as to me it’s the sum of the months days that matter, and not the day. As for long term positions, will only be posting snapshots of these end of month.
7) I will not comment on what I consider a long term position if there are no news worthy events to comment on. One of my weaknesses I identified in 2009 is I tending to sell my long term investments too early and took profits too fast, this was a nasty habit from 2008 which I hope can be cured & going to try and not follow investment positions everyday. One thing is for sure, I cannot have another record year in 2010 without getting the investment portion of my strategy to work.
As in 2009, in 2010 I expect to have trading ideas in general & it’s up to you how to use them.
For 2010, plan on getting one or two more long term picks as the year goes on, but not much more. So here are some thoughts and ideas:
Top speculative technology pick: CNTF, currently holding 12.5k at 3.14 with no plans to add. Stock trading at almost cash level, below book value, for a company that is generating cash and is introducing new online gaming revenue segements for 2010.
Top speculative biotech pick: ALXA, which could be stuck into a range all the way until 10/10 FDA decision. Currently accumulating shares in 2-2.20 range with only a small position here thus far with plenty of time to get in.
Top swing biotech trade: CLDX. Right now MEDX, which has been bought by BMY, is dumping basically their entire stake in the company due to what I believe are competitive reasons since CLDX already has a partnership with PFE. Looking to get into this name big for a monthly SWING TRADE in 2010 summer ASCO conference. CLDX cash position & pipeline currently rich, and will be following this one closely. I loved this pick in 2009 I will note, and it did not perform.
Top short trade ideas, ARST and TSTC. No current short positions in each, but I believe the growth is over for ARST. TSTC has red flags all over it to me with their accounts receivable & long term accounts receivable account creation. If either of these broke $30 after it’s 1st QTR earnings report will then reconsider these short ideas.
Here is to a great 2010, again no matter what the market conditions are, and looking forward to it -
Welsh
