JohnWelshPhd
ASCO 2010 Catalyst & Companies:

Here is a quick and dirty ASCO blog on the companies presenting new or detailed data.  The dates of the conference are June 4th - 8th, with most of the data occurring over that weekend.  CLDX CDX-110 already partnered results will shine and the most important detailed presentation of top line data already out looks to be DCTH.

Previews, or abstracts, will be released May 20th most companies, so watch for movement on this date.

What usually happens with ASCO events in past is stocks run up into the event and sell off on news.  That looks to be the case again even more this year.  

 Here are the companies, it’s not a complete list, but the ones I am following:

ARIA - ASCO not a big moving event for them as the reworked agreement with MRK about ridaforolimus on 5/5 a biggie.  They have three phase 1 trial data at ASCO, so all pretty much early stuff.  Don’t expect much noise from this company at ASCO, and to me they look fully valued.

ARQL - Detailed results from ARQ197 phase 2 trial.  The top line results of this trial spike ARQL over 100% because investors/traders hope that this trial with Tarceva may carry over to combinations of other cancer therapeutics such as Nexavar/liver cancer which is contributing to the ARQL excitement.  The detail better match the top line however.  Has an option shelf filed.  Company has big long term potential especially if they hint at other uses at the conference.  This company is starting to make me a believer but need to see more.

CLDX - Already had a huge run into ASCO as I type.  Pfizer will be presenting CDX-110 results for brain cancer which should be outstanding based on Pfizer ramping up hiring & test kits for this trial, and let’s face it, Pfizer needs to show their shareholders something good.  CDX-011 for breast cancer additional data may be presented, but for sure the final data for melanoma will be.  This drug is not partnered as of yet and will tell if the CRGN merger was for the cash or not.  Still phase 2 so early to say final judgment on the merger.  CDX-1307 bladder cancer phase 1 and detail will also be presented.  In 2009 CLDX shot up almost 100% on it’s CDX-110 data but sold off rest of year.  Has an open shelf filed.  Knowing CLDX like I do, would not be surprised to see them use some of the shelf before ASCO sorry to say.

CYCC - Investor relations impossible to get ahold of, but their big event may actually occur before ASCO.  CYCC waiting for it’s SPA, or FDA response for it’s AML drug sapacitabine.  This is a tricky one to play because news could come at anytime.  It’s response is needed to move from  phase 2 to to phase 3.  As far as ASCO, CYCC is presenting probably more detail of sapacitabine.  Has a history of selling off on any news but for this one the SPA event is bigger than ASCO I believe. If the SPA comes out favorable for CYCC before ASCO could be momentum stock into it but will sell off on news for sure.  Speculators love to hype this company up but in my opinion it’s all about the FDA response more then what is going on with ASCO.

DCTH - Already up huge this year, will be a top watched stock at ASCO.  The top line data phase 3 data for metastases from  liver melanoma got Jim Cramer so excited he  recommended speculators the stock.  At ASCO the detail of the phase 3 data will be presented of the trial including survival trends.  Wedbush recently raised it’s target on the stock to $21.  Has an open shelf sitting out there to use.  I have always been on the fence on DCTH, but management better deliver to match their own hype and investors expectations on the detail. 

 

EXEL - Data from a phase 2 study of XL184 in patients with progressive glioblastoma.  It will be interesting to see these results compared to CLDX-110.  It’s not an apples to apples comparison to CLDX, but if survival rate in this large population is greater than 4 months this company could sneak up and surprise at ASCO.  XL184 data has been presented before but now will be in much larger size.

GNBT - AE37 phase II data will be presented at ASCO, an immunotherapeutic vaccine, for breast cancer.  GNBT has like a perpetual shelf of stock offering outstanding, and even though stock price says it’s a small company, it’ s not, the outstanding shares are huge.  Oink. 

KERX - Stock has had a big move already and looks fully valued to me but I digress.  KERX has the a hot science that everyone is now trying to compare to DNDN.  I don’t fully buy it myself, but they are presenting a phase 2 result of colorectal cancer.  They already have one that is ‘fast tracked’ in phase 3 with AEZS.  In my opinion, this company probably will raise money soon.  I am not a fan of KERX.

MYRX - At ASCO, will report ongoing Phase 2a trials of Azixa(MPC-6827), in metastatic melanoma and recurrent glioblastoma (“GBM”), and Phase 1 clinical trial results for MPC-3100.  Nothing too exciting expect from this company at ASCO with these early trials, but it’s on my watch list.

NKTR - NKTR-102 supporting data for phase 2 results ovarian cancer.  More detail on results already out.  Also interesting is preliminary phase 1 data on NKTR-105 called Docetaxel.  It’s only phase 1 so maybe not much excitement here but will be interesting to see the preliminary data. 

OGXI - From OGXI investor relations:  Phase 1 solid tumor trial for OGX-427 is being presented at ASCO.  The trial includes evaluation as a monotherapy as well as 
in combination with chemotherapy. At last years ASCO, the monotherapy 
data was presented (however I don’t think the market really saw the 
data because our randomized phase 2 in prostate cancer with our lead 
product was also presented). The combination with chemotherapy will 
include new data. —Note, Rodman & Renshaw loves this company but for this years ASCO OXGI nothing too groundbreaking with only Phase 1 data….. - To me, OGXI looks like dead money for awhile.

OXGN - presenting further analysis of phase 2 FALCON study (Fosbretabulin in Advanced Lung Oncology)  Results of this study at ASCO is to support previous data already released.   Roth recently put a $4 target out on name before it’s dilution.  Has open shelf outstanding, trial overall is small and always sells off on news.

PCYC - Already up huge this year (See the theme for most of these biotechs?), will present more data on non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma PCI-32765 program.  If data is supporting, Roth has a note out saying this company is a potential takeout candidate.  Analyst love this company which tells me to be short heavy on weakness if there is any on a trade. 

SNSS - Two important data points will be out.  Phase 2 study of Voleloxin for ovarian cancer, and the study I will be watching detailed data on AML.  Data from AML already reported but this will be the first time complete results will be released.  This is not a small cap company any longer, been diluted to hell but is in the speculators wheelhouse for this conference even though it’s a phase 2 trial.

SPPI - Pre-clinical data from belinostat will be at ASCO, also some additional Zevalin detail.  Not expecting SPPI to be a star at ASCO, but wanting to mention because in my opinino I like this company and it’s management.  SPPI raised money at higher prices and has a decent pipeline with an approved drug.  Zevalin sales are off to a slow start though.  Maybe 2011 SPPI can come around and shine but this management team appears smart to me.  ASCO play this year, not so much.

THLD - Updated top line results from ongoing TH-302 clinical trials at ASCO, which they currently have three.  The “401 trial” is a trial of TH-302 as monotherapy in patients with advanced solid tumors. The “402 trial” is a three arm trial of TH-302 in combination with gemcitabine or docetaxel or pemetrexed in patients with advanced solid tumors. The “403 trial” is a trial of TH-302 in combination with doxorubicin in patients with advanced soft tissue sarcoma.  Not sure if they are updating all three, but this stock is a small cap special and is a thin trader.  They don’t have a ton of cash, and because they are so small they may not make a blip on the radar but it’s on my list.  Spoke to IR, and they will update all trials, but only 403 has been accepted as a poster presentation and abstract.

YMI - Recently raised some money so dilution seems to be out of the way for now.  Presenting nimotuzumab in pilot study for chemoradiation in patients with locally advanced squamous cell carcinoma of head and neck, & 4 year survival results from a phase 2b study.  Recent large insider purchase has put this one on my screen.  YMI has alot of clinical trials going on so hard to tell what if anything is new here.

ZIOP - a big mover so far this year, phase 2 trial PICASSO for Sarcoma (Palifosfamide).  JMP Securities who has a decent track record this year on some biotech calls, on 5/3 just raised it’s year price target to 10 solely on Palifosfamide expects PICASSO to start a phase 3 trial meaning these results should support PICASSO phase 3 trial design.

 

Speculators Bonus:

Lupus Conference June 24 - June 27 - IMMU doing an oral presentation of their lupus results which looks to be new data at the time I wrote the blog.  Update on IMMU:  5/10/2010 says to report more lupus data at EULAR conference June 16-19.

At the time of posting the blog, no positions in any companies long or short but will be trading them in and out over this time period.

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